A day before UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Smith, Bartosz “The Butcher” Fabinski still lines up as a +135 underdog and I cannot figure out why. Fabinski faces off against Emil Meek and his weaknesses in the cage are easily exploitable for the Polish brawler Bartosz.
Fabinski compiled an 11-2 record outside the UFC, with nine finishes in the first round. His two fights in the octagon have both ended in dominant unanimous decisions. Fabinski’s game plan is simple, take his opponent down straight to the mat and punch his face until the bell rings or the ref stops the fight.
Bartosz is no novice on the feet either, he’s a hasty brawler, who loves to get in the clinch and throw nasty knees. He doesn’t telegraph his takedowns even though he usually shoots within the first ten seconds of the round.
Fabinski secured 10 total takedowns in his first UFC action against Gareth McLellan, who hasn’t been downed twice in his career. Bartosz stuck with the same game plan in his second fight, taking down Hector Urbina six times. The submission specialist Urbina had never been taken down in his UFC career and Bartosz made sure a surprise sub from the bottom never happened with excellent grappling and ground and pound to stay busy.
I haven’t seen a fighter stick to this specific game plan to a “T” since the likes of the great Chael P. Sonnen a few years back. Fabinski’s dominance has easily carried over to the octagon and Emil Meek doesn’t have the attributes to bring Bartosz’s streak to an end.
The Norwegian Emil Meek fought all across Europe, going 8-1 with 7 KO’s. Since coming to America, Meek has gone 1-1 on both sides of a unanimous decision. Meek was actually losing his first fight to Jordan Mein, he had been taken down twice in the first round and didn’t have an answer for Mein’s grappling. But he stormed back on a tired opponent and stole the decision with the significant strikes landed late.
Next Meek faced tough competition and got thoroughly outclassed on the ground by the skilled wrestler Kamaru Usman. He struggled to recover and get up off his back against a skilled fighter on the mat.
Meek has a suspect 54% takedown defense in two UFC fights and I only see that figure getting worse this weekend. Bartosz Fabinski has the perfect skill set to exploit the Norwegian’s game. For the money, this fight is a ripe for a big payday as Bartosz is surprisingly the underdog. It pains me to go against a Scandinavian, after riding Swedes Makwan Amirkhani and David Teymur to success in our early betting ventures. However, this weekend the “Tap In Betting Fund” hopes to increase tenfold off the back of Bartosz “The Butcher”.
